Monday, 9 October 2017

Malaysia Budget 2018 potential beneficial is here!!!

Knowledge is the key to success - That is a very general saying for motivating students in excelling at their studies. So, what about turning this question into the ever challenging equity market?

What are the keys to success in the equity market ?
Honestly, there is no one single solution for this. As for me, I had to tell you that information and knowledge is one of the vital ingredient, but that is not enough to ensure you success in the equity market. Getting a piece of information is one thing, understanding the piece of information is another thing, but able to foresee how this piece of information can be applied into the market before the majority of the market does is what you need to strive to achieve in order to be successful in the equity market.

Which one do you want to understand more ?
The Red Ferrari or Pink Dressed Model ?
To make this happen, one of the most important things to do is to do a lot of reading. As for me, I read a lot of materials. For a start, I consume the local newspaper and financial dailies for the latest news and event happening both in our own social, political and financial arena. Then, I will also take it extra supplement such as medical journal and magazine, building and architectural design and concepts, IT software and hardware, automobile magazine. You might wonder, what heck use is there to read up automobile magazine have to do with stock market ? Of course, if you are just looking at hot models standing beside the car, or just glancing through the design and looking at how fast this car can go from 0 to 100kmh, that is quite useless. To make that reading more informative, you have to drill down to details such as what are the material used for the body frame, what kind of specification and what kind of sensor used, what kind of light bulb. In fact, the booming electric automobile development is the one behind pumping in the demand for aluminium because of it's lightweight function. And the multiple sensor around the car are fueling stock such as KESM and Gtronic. And the usage of LED is behind the reason for LED maker to gather steam.

Same piece of information, different reading technique, different interpretation.

However, one sad reality - Not many people can do this, because all these kind of reading require a lot of time and effort.

But fret not, because I will be doing all this work for you and sharing to you all for free. And if that is not enough, you can get latest update by liking my facebook page here and get the latest update. Of course, you can also ask me question while I will try my best to answer them - Great deal altogether?

And as for today, I want to bring your attention to the upcoming Budget 2018 and it's potential beneficiaries.

According to online news portal FreeMalaysiaToday, one of the potential beneficial hit list will be focused at the digital economy, automation, robotic development, big data industry and cloud services.


This is one of the reason why IT related companies at boosting upwards in share prices recently.

Let's look at one of the example - Kronologi Asia Berhad, a service provider for online data storage and protection solution.


This share had been rocketing upwards from a lowly 30 cents in the beginning of this year. If you asked me, I would say I had no freaking idea on what sort of hype is happening to this company. If you can see the below result, you can assume that Krono is currently trading at almost PER x 20 based on annualize earning of 5 cents for FYE 2017.


But, if I were to tell you that Kronologi could be one of the recipient to benefit from the Budget 2018 in terms of tax incentives for being involved in Cloud Service, that would make a good sense of why this company had been flying up since this year.

As for me, I am not telling you to get into Krono now, because Krono is already quite hyped up already.

What I am pointing to you is this one overlook stock that had just restructured itself and involve in the big data industry. And this stock is no stranger to you - Media Prima Berhad (Media - 4502).


As you can see, I had previously informed you why Media is a powerful stock ever since it had acquire RevAsia online content marketing unit which comprises of several popular online content marketing sites.

If this doesn't convince you enough to invest into Media, you have to know that the upcoming Budget 2018 is possibly going to give Media a definite game changer as they start their involvement into Digital Economy, Digital Media and Advertising and Big Data Industry.


So what is BIG DATA ?

According to a popular site, the definition of Big Data Analysis is the process of examining large and varied data sets -- i.e., big data -- to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations, market trends, customer preferences and other useful information that can help organizations make more-informed business decisions.

20 years ago, nobody will know what kind of news you like to read, nobody will know what time you like to read newspaper, nobody will know whether you read the front page big news or end page sport news first, nobody will know you will show interest in which advertisement, nobody will know how you react towards a particular of news.

Thanks to the evolving digital technology, today, everything can be tracked and all these data can be processed into a meaningful set of data that is valuable to business owner to make accurate decision based on consumer patterns.


So how does this work?

Let me give you an example. So now Astro want to know what is the Malaysia public taste for Hollywood movie, in order to get a response, they engage popular online content marketing site, Says.com for a poll to get reader responses.


As you can see, this 1 single post can garner 62k of reads and 2.3k of shares. Most importantly, it got 15.5k of votes from the public. Of course, for Says.com to write this post, Astro might probably have to pay them like RM 20k to RM 30k, or even more, I don't know. But I can tell you that it is not cheap.

But compared to the conventional style, it could even cost more, and much slower. If you had ever worked as interviewer in research company such as Acorn, then you will know how "mafan" it is to gather 1 response, not to mention 15.5k response from all over the places in Malaysia. For 15.5k response, it would had probably cost Astro a whopping RM 1.55 million if 1 response is charged at RM 100.

So do the math, pay RM 1.55 million or RM 30k ?

Of course, what I am showing you now is just the very surface. There are deeper analysis with the use of Google Analytic that can show you reader came from which region, what keyword they type, how long they spend in the post and etc.

I know all these are very confusing and complicated to you right now.

In order not to complicate you further, I want to place a conclusion that Media is having big time to benefit from the coming Budget 2018. As you know, I had been advocating for Media when it is just 72 cents, and I had to tell you that this company is full of potential from A to Z, and that is one critical reason why Morgan Stanley had been buying in in bulk, non stop, everyday action!!!

In no time, Media will be at RM 1.00 with or without you. But since you are reading this post until the end, I have to tell you that if you had missed the previous one, it is not too late now. RM 1.00 is a no brainer target. With new revenue from online division, lesser losses from physical print division, tax incentive from government - How to prevent Media from blowing up ??? 

Don't think too long, better act fast now !!! And like my Facebook page here as well.

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

Good Models will enrich your eyes, Good Business Models will enrich your wealth

Everyone know what is a model, but not everyone know what is a business model.

Today I am not going to tell you about models, but I would want to share with you some new knowledge about understanding a business, and how a business function. In short, it is the BUSINESS MODEL that is the core mechanism of the company.

In order for you to understand what is BUSINESS MODEL all about, I can refer you to this Youtube video that can give you a very brief knowledge on BUSINESS MODEL.


The most important part of the business model is the Value Proposition. This is where your company's product deliver the value in order to fill up the demand gap in the market. If your company is offering something that none other market competitor are able to offer, that is where the value stand out.

Every business looking for profit must have a viable business model, and not only that, the business model must keep on changing and adding in value in order to keep up with the evolving market. As you see, Kodak used to dominate the retailer segment in camera when everything is still using film, however, when digital camera become more advance and cheaper, Canon and Samsung had overtaken Kodak into this segment as retailer shift to digital camera for more shots without wasting films. Moreover, the ability of a digital image to be transferred from device to another device is easier, especially when the generation nowadays likes to share their photo in social media.

Whether you agree or not, a lot of things in our life are going digital. Unless you are planning to spend the rest of your lives in cave, you have to either embrace digital or face extinction - Brutal Reality.

Now that is Brutal Reality

So for the case of Sasbadi, what is the brutal reality ???

According to the Malaysian Education Blue Print 2013 - 2025, one of the segment that the government will enhance is to leverage ICT to scale up quality learning across Malaysia.

As you can see from this excerpt taken out from the executive summary, this phase involve in providing internet access and virtual learning environment via 1BestariNet for all 10,000 schools.

Aside from that, this phase will also augment online content to share best practices starting with a video library of the best teachers delivering lessons in Science, Mathematics, Bahasa Malaysia and English language.

It also focuses in the use of ICT for distance and self paced learning to expand access to high quality teaching regardless of location or student skill level.

And to sum it all to you, I have to tell you that all these 3 important points in the Malaysia Education Blue Print will find a suitable solution from Sasbadi.

Why ?

Because Sasbadi is currently the only pioneering company that is involved in providing online e-learning platform through it's i-LearnAce online web education.

The i-LearnAce platform will not only cater for revision exercise, there are also video lesson for student to do referenced as well. What is more, Sasbadi is one of the contracted publisher for the printing of text book for schools throughout Malaysia.

And to answer you that, this could be one of the very core reason why EPF is buying and loading up Sasbadi for the future!!! Imagine how much for proprietary rights and provision of service that the government need to pay to Sasbadi when this is implemented at a massive scale ? It might not happen now, but what about the next 5 years, 10 years ?

Albeit having spent RM 6 billion, it is not enough. Of course, if Malaysia Government start to spend RM 2 to 3 billion for Sasbadi to develop, implement and execute, why not ? 

Now coming back to the Business Model, I would like to share with you my simple thoughts of the Business Model of Sasbadi i-Learn Ace. Okay, hear me, I am refering to i-Learn Ace product only.


So what is so special in this i-Learn Ace business model ?

This capability of i-Learn Ace is that this platform is able to transfer the equivalent amount of knowledge that can be learned from the physical books - through the thin air!!! Amazing right ?

Alright, the thin air I am referring to is through the digital media. As digitalized content do not have physical appearance, hence this will eliminate all the printing cost, logistic cost, warehouse holding cost, inventory defects and damage cost, inventory theft or lost cost and etc. And I had to tell you that all this cost when added up together is a hell lots of money involved.

All the user need to access such content is
1. Internet
2. A smart device (Computer, Laptop, pads, smart phones)
3. And of course, ticket fees to access the content

Let me give you an example by comparing iLearnAce potential profit and traditional book print profit.

Let's say we are talking about a pool of 100,000 students every year.
For traditional method, the publisher need to print 100,000 books to cater for 100,000 students every year. So let's assume the total all in cost is RM 5 per book, and profit margin of RM 3, total RM 8 per book in average. So for this, the company earn RM 300,000 each year. This is perfect scenario, assume petrol no hike, electric no hike, books not printed wrongly and etc.

Now, let's put it to iLearnAce business model for 100,000 students every year.
For iLearnAce, the cost will be a 1 time development cost for the whole system. Let's assume the 1 time development cost is RM 300,000. And since there are no physical form of delivery, hence a lot of cost are saved. Now, let's assume 1 student need to pay RM 5 for the access to the content of the system, so 100,000 student will be paying RM 500,000 each year.

For the 1st year comparison, traditional method might be seeing a higher profit or RM 300,000 while the iLearnAce will derive RM 200,000 only. But for the next subsequent year, iLearnAce will be deriving RM 500,000 as there will not be a need to develop the content again. But, the traditional print method might be exposed to higher cost due to raw material and logistic cost which can impair the profit margin.

According to my knowledge, iLearnAce will only need approximate RM 350 for a 1 year access to 6 subject, which is like RM 1 a day. It is only a matter of time that once iLearnAce gain enough publicity, then the system will be able to benefit from the massive of scale usage.

For now, I had shown you the massive potential of Sasbadi, and also the reason why EPF is buying into Sasbadi without in huge chunks.

In conclusion, the Brutal Reality will strike you with regret in the next 2 years if you did not invest in Sasbadi now. Yea, no joke, just like how I had mentioned about GCB at RM 1 when cocoa price hit rock bottom!! I had teach you how a lower material price will bring benefit to GCB here and now GCB is RM 1.70. Now I am telling you how this iLearnAce business model will be bringing in big chunk of $$ to Sasbadi now!! Is up to you and in your hands now.

Tuesday, 3 October 2017

EPF is not letting this company away from it's portfolio, which is why you shouldn't either!

Equity market had been riding tough and rough for the past few weeks. The weaker than expected financial result in most of the companies financial reporting announced in the 3rd quarter this year had took investor to reassess their investment portfolio. When this happen, institutional fund will start to do the buy and sell, and of course, this will also represent a good time period to do some good accumulation.

If you had been following me for the past weeks, you would notice that 1 of my notable finding on Media which highlight the potential possibilities of why Morgan Stanley had been buying into Media continuously without fail lately.

As for today, I would like to show you this 1 stock that had been accumulation by our very own EPF. For a stock to be qualified into EPF list of purchase, the stock must had a track record, making profits, paying dividends and potentially is a company that provide services that are crucial for the country.

You might had probably used the products of this company during your school days - Text Books and Exercise Books. For this case, I would want to introduce Sabadi Holdings Berhad (Sasbadi - 5252) into your radar.

So what is so interesting that is happening in Sasbadi that resulted in EPF buying into the company shares ?


EPF had been buying and selling Sasbadi shares previously. However, according to official records, EPF had started to become the net purchaser of Sasbadi shares in the open market starting this year. As you can see, EPF stake in Sasbadi during January is almost 6%.


However, rolling on 9 months later, EPF had increased it's stake to a total of 9.77% of Sasbadi shares now, with the latest acquisition being done on 25th September 2017 with 300,000 units at the price range of RM 0.88.

If you are a thorough investor, it would had strike your mind that - Why is EPF accumulating on the shares of Sasbadi despite some suppressed earning as of lately? This is a very valid question for every investor, and knowing the most accurate answer is important because it is the very key towards the success of the investment.

For commoner, Sasbadi is known for printing text books, exercise books and some other general titles for adult that had left the "academic" process. Other than printing books and selling books, most do not know what else is Sasbadi is involved in - Am I right to say so ?

One of the major move that the company had made in 2016 is that Sasbadi is actually diversifying into network marketing in order to derive more revenue from a new business sector. As reported in The Edge, Sasbadi sees a good prospect in the network marketing business and had obtained a network marketing license in April 2016 in order to conduct that business. I had to tell you that Sasbadi is not going to sell you health food like what other network marketing companies do,  but they are going to compliment it's existing business in education by providing an online learning platform that is able to cater to students from as young as 10 years (Standard 4) old to middle school student (Form 5)

As I know some people might be triggered by the word MLM, I had to tell you that not all MLM are scams. Some MLM are really legit, conduct proper business dealing and are even listed companies in the KLSE. And I had to point out to you that MLM companies in Malaysia are not too bad either, because some are really doing good, and some really had their very good season when the time comes.

If you do not know, Hai-O Enterprise Berhad is actually a traditional herb company that also have it's network marketing arm beside it's retail outlet. As you can see, Hai-O share price had been increasing steadily for the past 2 years, where revenue from the network marketing contributes a lot to the bottom line of the company growth.


Another MLM company - Zhulian. Based in Penang, this company involves in health food, beauty, home improvement products and jewellery.


Coming back to Sasbadi. The question here to ask is - What is so special about the network marketing product and services that Sasbadi is offering ? Will Sasbadi network marketing product be able to replicate the success like Hai-O, where share price rocket without fail for 2 years ?

If you are keen to know, then you will have to read below and click to the links and study further.


The product is called i Learn Ace. Basically, this product is an online learning platform that have a lot of exercises and revision material that can cater to students through online access using computer, laptop or smart phone devices.


The platform comprises of most of the important syllabus of the main stream subjects.
 
There are a lot of function in this iLearnAce, such as mind mapping, video lesson, dictionary and even competition board. Of course, if you want to give it a try, then you can contact Mindtech Education for more information.

As for me, I want you to know that Sasbadi will be a great emerging company to be invested into because education never dies, despite of economic uncertainties or downturn, education will have to continue and resemble an important process for every single children to go through.

Today, I had highlighted to you Sasbadi and it's latest product offering. Following on, I will share to you my insight on One of the reason why EPF is buying into Sasbadi and will decrypt the latest business model of Sasbadi for you to understand how explosive can this new product iLearnAce contribute into the bottom line of the company in the future.

If you are looking for a long term investment with future growth and dividend, look no further and Sasbadi will be your correct choice. I am confidently pointing to you to invest into this stock, because in my next article, all beans will be spilled out, and I am afraid that you might need to pay a premium for that.




Friday, 29 September 2017

Like this page and I will bring your investment to the next level

To all avid fellow readers,

In order to bring in some freshness and more engagement with the readers, there will be some new changes and some overhaul in activities - of course, for free again.

For a start, there will be a new Facebook Page set up - Bonescythe Stock Watch.


For a start, I will have some free stuff for you to grab again when the page reaches 1000 likes.

So what are the free stuff you can be looking at ?

I am referring to stuff like :
- 80% discount in stock training seminar and coaching
- Free stock updates
- VIP Chat Group and Discussion
- Merchandise and a lot more possibilities that is permissible under the sun and law.
 
No matter you are an old ginger or new ginger, we will present to you another new dimension in spicing up your next investment journey.

My teaching will let you how to do critical thinking on mind mapping  on factor that influence the movement of a stock price, and of course, before other people find out.
Such as are the example like Liihen, where I had informed you on the potential of recovery from the destruction of the hurricane in the US.

Aside from that, also can help you interpret what institution buying means to this stock, like how Media had appeared to be by Morgan Stanley continuous buying from the open market.

If you ask me, I have to tell you that these are rare skills. And for that, I had to tell you that you do not acquire rare skill easily from the outside world. For me, I had not inherited this rare skill, but I had went through the exact journey to acquire this rare skill which I can share with you if you are the lucky one.

So, wait no more, and proceed to like this page - Bonescythe Stock Watch for more updates to come, exclusively for you.

Cheers

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

This Company can be in the Multi-Billion Ringgit Deal

Hi all enthusiastic reader!! Today, I am sure you would be expecting me to tell you what the freak is happening to Media. As you can see, my previous post on Media had highlighted on the continuous buying of Media share in the open market by Morgan Stanley. I had to tell you that until now, Morgan Stanley had not been stopping this feat, and it is still being reported that the investment banker had been buying in huge amount of Media share last week as well. The latest filing show that Morgan Stanley is holding more than 8% of Media shares now!!


So, what is the underlying reason for Morgan Stanley to be doing so? As you know, curiosity kills the cat, so before any cutie cat get killed,  I will need to reveal my assumption for the cats to study first. Kikiki.....


As you know, one of the biggest acquisition done by Media Prima this year had to be the deal that involves RM 105 million with Rev Asia Holdings Sdn Bhd. Basically, this deal encompasses the purchase of digital asset from Rev Asia, namely - OHBULAN!, Says.com, Viral Cham, Rojaklah, JUICE, 8Share, MyResipi, KongsiResipi.com and SirapLimau.

The acquisition which had finally completed at the 3rd quarter of this year is looking to transform the business revenue of Media Prima by increasing it's revenue from online segment.

So, what has these 9 websites got to do that can hook up a huge sum of RM 105 million ? I had to tell you that RM 105 million is a lot of money, and the website are purely intangible assets. And a lot of you probably do not have any idea what the fack are those website at all.

Because of this, I am here to explain to you, in a very layman term on the degree of interaction of such websites in the industry of advertisement.

Let's start out with something simple and understandable. In graphics, we know what is 1D, 2D and 3D, right ? 1 dimension is a flat, 2 dimension offer you flat view of an object with height and width, and 3 dimension offer you a 3D view of an object.

To put this into the media industry, let me explain it this way :
- Newspaper akin to 1D level, where reader can only read and see what is being written.
- Television Media is akin to 2D level, where reader can read, see and listen to the content.
- Online Content Marketing is like 3D level, because it offers the reader to read, see, listen and giving feedback and comment.

The ability to provide a media platform for a reader to interact with the marketed content is the current "in-thing", and that is what Online Content Marketing platform such as Says.com, ViralCham is being so hotly sought after.

The question now leads to - How big is this growing industry of Online Content Marketing nowadays ?


If you had been following this segment, you will be aware that the popular site in US namely "The Huffington Post" is sold to AOL for a stunning USD 315 million. That being said, this deal is done in year 2011. Under the Huffington Post umbrella are other media enterprises such as TechCrunch and MapQuest.

If you think USD 315 million is a big amount paid by AOL to acquire Huffington Post, YOU ARE DEAD WRONG HERE.

This is because 4 years later, AOL is sold to Verizon for a landmark deal of USD 4.4 billion !!! And the reason ? That is because Verizon is finding something to penetrate deeper into it's consumer base, and AOL is the bridge linking to that solution, where it is particularly strong in video advertising.

Whatever it is, AOL investment of USD 315 million had came back louder with USD 4.4 billion within 4 years. While I am not trying to prove to you anything, I had to tell you that the trend in advertising had to do with Online Content Marketing which offer a much more interactive platform to connect the consumer and the marketer.

That being said, I had to highlight to you that Media Prima Berhad is actually on it's way in replicating the successful model that AOL had went through. That is because Media Prima had everything that AOL had, from TV Channel, Radio Broadcasting, and now completing it with the acquisition of Online Content Marketing site.

Albeit Malaysia is starting a little slower compared to the US peers, things are picking up. Rev Asia had actually started to acquire and consolidate all these online content marketing platform since 2016. Rev acquire ViralCham and Rojaklah on August 2016, and continue to acquire Malay popular content portal such as Siraplimau, Myresipi and Kongsiresipi on December 2016.

According to official filing, Rev Asia paid RM 5 million for both ViralCham and Rojaklah. And as for the 3 of the Malay content site, Rev Asia paid RM 2.65 million in Dec 2016. Of course, the biggest prized asset had to be from the popular content site of Says.com, which is the reason why Catcha change it's name into Rev Asia after the RM 60 million merger.

That being said, the main question that I would want you to give a thinker is - Will Media be walking the path of AOL ?

Will Media become the solution for TM in the next 2 years ?

I believe, if you had read until now, and check through all the referral links that I had provided, you would by now know that, everything is possible.

Morgan Stanley could had been involved in the deal from AOL to Verizon. For this reason, given a similar reappearance of the case, but in Asia for this context - What will you do if you are Morgan Stanley? Sit and stare? Or buy when it is at it's weakest mark of the state?

In conclusion, I had show you the potential, possible, or even maybe the real reason of why Morgan Stanley is buying into Media continuously. As for you, what is your take now ? Watch or Act - Is in your hands!

Monday, 25 September 2017

You might had missed Liihen, but don't miss out what Morgan Stanley is buying now!!!

Good day every fellow reader. I hope my previous recommendation in Liihen will find you good, and will also help you to recover a bit of losses here and there in this challenging and cautious market. Gone are the days where you can afford to close your eyes and punt into any stock which will easily turn you in with huge chunk of profits during the earlier half of this year. Now, the market sentiment continue to be mired by North Korean nuclear and missile activities as well as some development in the crude oil market. Nonetheless, the US market (DJIA) continue to rally above 23000, historical high to say. Despite warning after warning, the strength of DJIA continue to defy the bear-logic.

For now, I am not going to talk too much crap on the broad market, but I would like to point out to you on this important aspect of "You and The Market Opportunity".

Are you really doing enough to capture what the market opportunity had to offer to you for the past 2 weeks ?

My name is ?
So for the past 3 to 4 weeks, one of the major news in the world had to be Hurricane Harvey, then Irma, and followed by Jose, Katia, Lee and so on. By the way, just an additional knowledge if you are wondering how are the hurricane being named - They are done in alphabetically order (A,B,C,D......X,Y,Z) and the names will rotate from male, then female, then male. For example, Harvey is a male name, Irma is female, and Jose is male. Now you got it?

Now the media is finally picking up on the recovery of the destruction caused by the Hurricane, but at what cost ?

Let me show you. When I had highlighted on Liihen on the 8th September 2017 in this post, Liihen is trading at the price at probably RM 3.38 with a 4 cents dividend in hand. Subsequently, if you had "Just Do It" as per my recommendation on September 11, that's probably around RM 3.35. As you can see, I had picked up on Liihen when nobody see it as a golden opportunity.

So, if you had followed on Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, then you would probably be catching Liihen at around RM 3.50. And it subsequently went to a high of RM 3.78


Lastly, if you are the retailer that will be just reading The Star Newspaper, then you will notice that on 23rd September, the newspaper highlighted on "Windfall for local furniture maker" due to restoration work from the devastation left by the hurricane in the US and Carribean. Of course, now Liihen price is at RM 3.67 as of Thursday closing.

My point is - the choice to enter at RM 3.38, or RM 3.50, or RM 3.67 - You know which is better, right ?

Alright, now I am not going to bullsheet so much on Hurricane, nor am I going to talk about Liihen today, because today, I need to reveal to you a company which you should take note seriously again. You would ask me - Why ah ?

To answer you this from top to toe, you ear hole might probably become as big as a bottle hole. So I had to avoid that from happening.

To cut it short - Morgan Stanley is buying this company for the past 6 months without stop !

This lead to your next question - Which company is this ?

Nonetheless, it is Media Prima Berhad (Media - 4502)

As you can see, Morgan Stanley had been accumulating on Media share, and break the 5% mark on April 2017. As of 6th April 2017, Morgan Stanley held 5.05% of Media share.


So what is the price Media is trading at during that time of period in April 2017.

According to this chart, Media is trading at the price of RM 1.20. Which means, any open market buy in by Morgan Stanley had to be seen at the cost of RM 1.20.


Now, Media had started to break out from a medium term down trend. As a matter of fact, the reason for Media share dropping into this point is much contributed from the impairment done to an invested entity by the name of MNI (Malaysia Newsprint Services), where Media held 21.4%.

Prior to this, I believe now Media is at a very clean state, and geared up for a better growth in the coming future.

For this reason, I had to tell you that ever since Morgan Stanley started it's buying spree in Media, it had not stop accumulating it's share from the open market.
According to the latest filing, Morgan Stanley held 7.89% of Media share as of 21st September 2017, which is an increase of 2.84% from April. And I had to tell you that Morgan Stanley is not seen to be slowing down on it's purchase on Media share from the open public.

But, Morgan Stanley is definitely not alone in this heist of Media share from the public. A public filing show that even our own EPF is buying into Media, and is currently holding 13.6% of equity interest in Media.


So, what had Media got to do with you ???

Since all the big fund taikors are buying into Media, I believe it wouldn't harm you much if you follow them to buy in into Media at the current price, right ?


Why now is the best time ? Because the above price chart shown you clearly that Media is currently at it's all time low for the past 3 years !!! All time low, and all the big fund taikors are buying in blindly or with intention, we don't have to know much - What matters much is are you going to buy in into Media or not ?

For now, I will not talk too much. I had to tell you that buying into Media now is the best ever timing!! Now, now, now!!! No other better time, and don't take too much time to think.

In my next post, I will share with you on my further analysis on 
1) Why Morgan Stanley is buying
2) What is going to happen to Media
3) What can Media Prima do in the upcoming General Election.

But for now, the choice is yours. Media at RM 0.75 - Take it or miss it. Don't repeat a case of Liihen again.

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

When Disaster struck Japan, Yen rose stronger. Now Disaster struck US, can the US Dollar be stronger ?

If we are to discuss about the effect of natural disaster towards the currency of an affected country, one fine example that should not be left out will be the year where Japan was stricken by an earthquake, followed by a huge tsunami that had punch a deep hole into the Japanese economy. Should your memory still serve you well, that disastrous event took place at 11th March 2011. A earthquake with strength being measured at 9.1 magnitude shook the waters, and sending huge amount of water flowing to Japan. Albeit the tsunami had send wrecking waves to the nuclear reactor in Fukushima, another notable event is that it had too send the local currency (Japanese Yen) towards the strongest moment in the 50 years history, trading at ¥76.25 against the dollar at one stage.

While many are wondering what is the cause for the Yen to rise, here is a quick take from a financial site. CNBC had outlined the process towards recovery will generate some level of stimulus. As a nation, that is the one right thing to do - towards the path of recovery. As you can see, a recovery effort will come from government stimulus, insurance savings and private companies from private savings.


Another reason is that the process to repatriate the money to change into Yen will also encourage a stronger Yen.




Since US is facing the recovery from both Hurricane Harvey and Irma, what is there for us to expect, especially on it's recovery process.


Currently, the US Dollar Index can had sank to it's almost lowest region for the past 2 years. Will this hurricane disaster change the course of the US Dollar strength ?

Do you foresee that the recovery process such as payout from insurance policy and repatriation of fund to the US to help the green back again ? As building material such as timber and furniture are imported, a stronger USD will also help in lowering the cost of recovery.

If you can foresee that USD might have a chance to become stronger again, it will be a good decision to invest in company that will benefit from a stronger dollar. To hedge your investment in case that the dollar do not really go as strong as you project, you can invest into company that will benefit from the mess of the hurricane havoc. To make your investment secure, you would probably choose a company that had delivered proven result in order to enhance your confident in your selection.

For the above 3 criteria, I have to tell you that Liihen indeed can fulfill all of them.

1. Liihen benefit from a stronger dollar. With the dollar at it's current weakest state in the whole year, it will be a great opportunity to take chance of it.

2. Liihen will benefit from the recovery by manufacturing more furniture and export them to the US. To back this up, more than 70% of the sales are export to the US.


3. Liihen had proven it's result consistently for the past 2 years, and is rewarding it's shareholder with quarterly dividend.


Not good enough ? Nevermind, I will tell you one more thing which is going to happen in Liihen, but another time. Cheers


Monday, 11 September 2017

When positive factor outweight negative factor in investment - Just Do It

One of the very important factor that will surround the export oriented stock in Malaysia would be the strength of the USD against MYR. Undeniably, this will translate to huge forex gain, or vice versa, huge forex losses.

Ever since the US Dollar Index peaking out at January 2017, it had start to pare down for 8 months straight.
One of the factor with the raging US index is due to the foreign investment putting up bets in US equity in a view that the weaker USD is a good buying chance. The poor performance of the USD is substantially contributed by the longer than expected rate hike by the Feds.

Now with major disaster plaguing the US with Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, this will put the Feds holding back into the planned rate raising, hence, in turn, will result in turn result in the beating of the USD index further. Prior to such disaster, pundits gave a 30 to 40% chance that the Feds will raise the rates at the end of 2017, putting more pressure into the US Dollar.

However, if you invested in export oriented stock, I have to tell you that all is not gone yet.

One core reason is due to a golden hole created by such disaster, which in turn will turn into better demand for Furniture maker such as Liihen.

Fresh from the disaster of Hurricane Harvey which come with estimated economic damage of USD 100 billion, now US is facing yet another large potential with Hurricane Irma, which will undoubtedly causing another few billions again.

So how bad is Hurricane Irma ?


This image taken from the British Virgin Island at the Caribbean sea had display the wrath of Irma, razing out everything on it's path, with 90% of the building destroyed. While there hadn't been much updates in Florida for the time being, I think more news will start to surface as the storm passes and journalist start to witness the destruction.

To sum it up - Furniture manufacturing company will benefit from such disaster. You might be asking why ?

Firstly, we will be seeing huge insurance payment for the massive losses. That will be well spent in area for the rebuilding of house, which includes - house furnishing.

Secondly, for those who are not properly or well insured, the US president - Donald Trump, had approve a USD 15 billion budget to assist the affected victim, and passed by the Congress.

All this recovery effort will be a huge boost for building and construction company, not to forget, furniture manufacturing company.

Why Liihen is still a good bet for this case ? For an easy evaluation, we will look at the recent financial performance for a quick assessment.


For the case of Liihen, I will regard it as safe to annualize the earning due to such prospect. The demand created from recovery with existing demand will also help in putting a better gross profit margin in it's furniture sales.

Simple math putting it straight forward, projection of EPS at 40 cents, and valuing at PER x 10, that will sum up to RM 4.00 based on earning. As for dividend wise, we expect Liihen to continue to reward shareholder generously with probably 8 to 10 cents for the 2nd half performance.

If you are looking for a longer term investment horizon of 6 to 9 months, Liihen could be one of your preferred choice due to it's exposure in furniture export to the US market as highlighted previously in my post.

Friday, 8 September 2017

Hurricane Harvey blow a hole, but this company finds the gold

One of the top global news would be the current natural catastrophe that had been plaguing the United States of America for the past week - Hurricane Harvey.

Albeit Hurricane Harvey being categorized as a Category 4 Hurricane, the onslaught of it's destruction power had been proven to be one of the costliest in terms of economical damage to the US history. Analyst had been putting up figures which are chalking above USD 100 billion in economic losses.

While it is a pitiful event for the citizen staying at the affected area - Houston and Louisiana, we continue to pray that the people will stay strong amidst this challenging times as relieve and support come into help.

In such a powerful hurricane, you would consider to be lucky if you house suffered from a ripped off roof. As for those house where sits at the traveling path of the eye of the storm, you can expect a power grazed to ground scenario.

House with water front scenario

Even Kimi Raikkonen can't do that

Is too bad, nothing can be salvage here

It is not advisable to swim in such condition

Movie uses CGI effect to make such flood. Harvey uses water to make such flood

One thing good about human being is that we will always rise up strong and move forward after a disaster. Now that Hurricane Harvey had completed it's job in drilling a economic hole into Houston and Louisiana, it is time for this company to dig out the gold inside the hole.

So what is so special about this company ?


According to my the latest quarterly report, this company derived 70% of it's sales revenue from the US. And, it is none other than Lii Hen Industries Berhad (Liihen - 7089)

As you can see, albeit the situation at the damage site is bad, but things do not stop there, and recovery and rebuilding will come in. For a developed nation such as United States of America, we are definitely going to see government support and relieve to help the victim in getting back their feet. Other than that, we will be looking to see insurance company unlocking that pile of cash from their banks account and compensate the victim, which in turn - benefit the economy.

As a matter of fact, US listed furniture company - Home Depot, had saw it's share price rambling upwards, gaining almost 4% since that event.


Since Liihen had strong export exposure to the US, I will be looking to see this event to contribute to Liihen upcoming revenue in the next 6 months. On technical outlook, Liihen continue to see a strong display of uptrend backed with strong financial result.

Of course, now the ball is at your side to see if this opportunity is a good deal for you. As for me, I had laid down some facts of event, you can justify your investment as a good bet, or bad ball.


Monday, 21 August 2017

Plastic and Packaging always go hand in hand

Tough times are good times, provided you know how to capitalize that moment correctly. Many a time, we could be telling ourselves to buy when the market had dipped. But when the actual event happen, 80% of us fail to execute and rather go with emotions. That is the difference of planning, and really executing something. Comparing between an execution that is done based on planning and an execution done based on emotions and impulsive decision - It is a fact that the later factor (emotions) is far more influential.

At a tough times like this, if you can be given a chance to spot a good company with profit and dividend record at a reasonable price - Would you invest now ?

That right - I found out that BP Plastics Holdings Berhad (Bpplas) might be the company suitable for this category.

Basically, Bpplas is involved in industrial packaging and stretch film manufacturing. This segment had been touted as a high potential segment due to the growing packaging demand in the Asia region. If you would want to have a in depth information on the products and offering of Bpplas, then it will be good for you to visit their website directly for more information.

As for me, I am going to share with you my analysis - Why I think Bpplas 2Q 2017 performance will be better than the 1Q performance.

One of the core reason for the drop of net profit reported for the performance on 1Q 2017 is due to higher resin price, with resulted to higher raw material input, hence reducing the gross profit margin. Now that the price of resin is somehow positively correlated to the movement of crude price oil, a higher crude oil price will result in a higher resin price, while a lower crude oil price will see a lower resin price - theoretically speaking.


So if this chart which show a supposing lower average of crude price in 2Q compared to 1Q, it is valid to assume on a lower price of resin, and hence, a lower input cost for Bpplas as a whole. Of course, you have the rights to doubt me on my point of sharing. However, I had did a similar analysis earlier on the share of Guan Chong Berhad (GCB), depicting that the lower cocoa prices will boost the business margin moving forward. That was done when GCB is trading around the range of RM 1.05. And as a matter of fact, GCB latest result display a higher net profit albeit seeing a drop in revenue. But that is not the important thing, because the important thing is that GCB went on trading at a high of RM 1.65, and that I am talking about almost 60% capital gain in nature.

As for Bpplas, my outlook is that crude oil prices will continue to be suppressed at the range of USD 50 for another 2 to 3 years to go. It could maybe end up lower as supply gluts persist, and a drop in demand will put the oil market into high wave rough waters. Of course, as crude oil price drop, raw material prices drop, and Bpplas will have a better control over their margins.


Now, put that to some simple technical reading, Bpplas had obviously traded below the support line of RM 1.44. The drop below is contributed from the weaker equity market sentiment, but it will not be significant as the fall did not consist of huge dumping in volume.

Speaking of dividend, the company had deliver a consistent quarterly dividend for the past 6 quarters.
For the latest 4 quarter, the total dividend distributed is 8 cents. At the current price of RM 1.36, the potential dividend yield is at 5.88%.

Being a net cash company, I would expect that Bpplas will continue it's dividend policy.

Now Bpplas is almost at the rock bottom price. However, should the coming result announcement reflect a better EPS, you can expect Bpplas to trade back above to the support price of RM 1.44.